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Center for Mediterranean Integration (CMI) & The Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO)
Partners include the International Water Management Institute (IWMI), International Center for Advanced Mediterranean Agronomic Studies (CIHEAM-Bari), Cewas Middle-East, Agence Francaise de Développement (AFD), World Bank, and the MedYWat network.
Natural disasters such as droughts, floods and torrential rains are natural weather events that communities have faced and dealt with for generations. However, over the past two decades, climate change/variability has accelerated the frequency, intensity and severity at which these natural disasters occur. Adaptation to climate change impacts is emerging as a key development agenda across the globe.
Within this context, Climate change also adds a new complexity to the areas of human mobility and settlement by exacerbating environmental degradation, and thereby water and food security. Evidence is still scarce on the relative impacts and inter-relations between water availability, access, and use, changing climate patterns, agricultural transformation, migration, and displacement. However, environmental shocks and long-term trends are shown to be a trigger for, and sometimes to exacerbate existing human movements, impacting the nature of decision making and thus, the rural communities and the rural-to-urban migration.
The water security nexus study seeks to better understand security in an interdependent world, building a stronger understanding of cross-sector security issues (food, water, environmental, migratory, demographic, etc.) in North African countries and their impacts on human mobility. It will help researchers to better understand, and policy makers to better address ways of mitigating the multiplier effects of possible climate shocks, and to put in place more robust policy measures to tackle long-term trends, in particular regarding youth and rural development.
The main targeted outcomes from this initiative can be categorized as Understanding, Capacity & Collaboration and Engagement.
Assessing Future Drought Characteristics under a Changing Climate for Morocco - Completed: As part of the overall program, new data sets have been developed in consultation with key government agencies. Data from 10 in total Global Climate Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs) were extracted for from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) (https://cordex.org/data-access/) for both the past and future against three Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (historical, RCP 4.5, 8.5). The data were checked against available values for long-term precipitation and average min/max temperatures (tmin/ tmax for the historical period data (using ECMWF ERA5 data because of the spatial coverage) and then bias corrected using quantile mapping methodology. From these base data sets, new national-level climate change data and maps were generated covering various indicators that were identified by key stakeholders as important to their operations.
Capacity & Collaboration