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Highlights

Understanding Morocco’s Climate Futures – Using National climate change data sets to support planning and investment

  • Starts: Feb 03, 2021
  • Ends: Feb 03, 2021
  • Location: Virtual
  • By: CMI, IWMI, UK FCDO ,WB
  • Context

     

    Climate change adds new complexity to Morocco’s economic growth by bringing increased stresses to water and land systems, so affecting water and food insecurity. The climate shocks in recent years of droughts and floods have unfortunately highlighted the impacts of these extreme events. With global models predicting that these will increase, alongside other changes in climate conditions such as in the growing season and heatwaves, it is important for Morocco’s decision-makers to have access to national-scale data that can inform their planning and investments.

     

    Under the Water Security Nexus program, funded by the UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth, and Development Office (FCDO), the CMI and its technical partners are conducting a set of activities aiming at understanding the interrelation between water security, climate change (drought) and migration in North Africa, building the capacity of decision-makers to better manage water security and drought monitoring in the region, and ​engaging stakeholders (youth, governments, private sector, academia, civil society, etc.) in regional collaboration.

     

    As part of this overall program, one of the activities conducted in close coordination with, supported by the Directorate of Financial Studies and Forecasting (DEPF) of the Ministry of Economy, Finance, and Administration Reform of Morocco, was to develop new data sets in consultation with key government agencies. Data from 10 in total Global Climate Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs) were extracted for from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) (https://cordex.org/data-access/) for both the past and future against three Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (historical, RCP 4.5, 8.5). The European Domain was selected as this gave 11km resolution data, although the southernmost part of the country was not available. If the African Domain data has been used the resolution would have been 44-50km and this would have meant key transition areas such as the Atlas Mountains, the coastal strip would not have been well represented.

     

    The data were checked against available values for long-term precipitation and average min/max temperatures (tmin/ tmax for the historical period data (using ECMWF ERA5 data because of the spatial coverage) and then bias-corrected using quantile mapping methodology. This compares historical periods to derive per-pixel, per-value correction factors based on cumulative distribution functions of observations and model outputs.

     

    From these base data sets, new national-level climate change data and maps were generated covering various indicators that were identified by key stakeholders, through email, online meetings, or telephone, as important to their operations.

     

    Objectives

     

    The objectives of the workshop were to:

    • Introduce Moroccan stakeholders to the Water Security Nexus Study in North Africa: Catalysing regional cooperation around climate change, migration, and resilience. 
    • Expand the knowledge base for supporting water and agriculture management in Morocco with national climate change data.
    • Transfer knowledge on the approaches and methods used for climate change data generation and analysis.

     

    Targeted Audience and Participation to the Event:

     

     

    Resources

     

     

    Watch the workshop's recording 

     

     

    Presentations

     

    Session 1 - Introduction

    Session 2 - Integration of climate analysis in planning and needs

    Session 3 - Climate change assessment methods, generation, and introduction to the new climate datasets            

     

     

     

    Speakers

     

    Opening Remarks

    • Mrs. Blanca Moreno-Dodson (Manager for the Center for Mediterranean Integration)
    • H.E Mr. Simon Martin (Ambassador of the United Kingdom in Morocco)
    • M. Mounssif Aderkaoui (Direction des Etudes et des Prévisions Financières du Ministère de l’Economie, des Finances et de la Réforme de l’Administration, Kingdom of Morocco)
    • M. Omar Benjelloun (Directeur de la Recherche et de la Planification de l’Eau, Ministère de l’Equipement, du Transport, de la Logistique et de l’Eau, Royaume du Maroc)
    • M. Jesko Hentschel (Directeur pays, Banque Mondiale)

     

    Presenters

    • Mr Frédéric de Dinechin, Senior Knowledge Management Officer, CMI
    • Mrs. Safaa Bahije, Water Resources Specialist, WB
    • Dr. Rachael Mcdonnell, Strategic Program Director – Water, Climate Change & Resilience, IWMI
    • Prof. Fatima Driouech, Water & Climate Expert, Mohammed VI Polytechnic University & Consultant IWMI
    • Mrs. Siham Laraichi, Head of Hydro-climatic monitoring, General Directorate of Water, Morocco
    • Dr. Riad Balaghi, Head, Agronomy and Agricultural Machinery, INRA of Morocco
    • Mrs. Fatiha Fdil, Head of Planning and Assessment of Water Resources, ABH Souss-Massa, Morocco 
    • Dr. Luna Bharati, Principal Researcher-Hydrology and Water Resources, IWMI
    • Mr. Jack Beard, Climate change modeling Expert, Future Water, and Consultant IWMI  
    • Mrs. Saloua Balhane, Ph.D. student, Mohammed VI Polytechnic University