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Climate change adds new complexity to Morocco’s economic growth by bringing increased stresses to water and land systems, so affecting water and food insecurity. The climate shocks in recent years of droughts and floods have unfortunately highlighted the impacts of these extreme events. With global models predicting that these will increase, alongside other changes in climate conditions such as in the growing season and heatwaves, it is important for Morocco’s decision-makers to have access to national-scale data that can inform their planning and investments.
Then, as part of the overall Water Security Nexus program, one of the activities conducted with the support of the Directorate of Financial Studies and Forecasting (DEPF) of the Ministry of Economy, Finance, and Administration Reform of Morocco, was to develop new data sets in consultation with key government agencies. Data from 10 in total Global Climate Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs) were extracted for from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) (https://cordex.org/data-access/) for both the past and future against three Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (historical, RCP 4.5, 8.5). The European Domain was selected as this gave 11km resolution data, although the southernmost part of the country was not available.
The data were checked against available values for long-term precipitation and average min/max temperatures (tmin/ tmax for the historical period data (using ECMWF ERA5 data because of the spatial coverage) and then bias-corrected using quantile mapping methodology. This compares historical periods to derive per-pixel, per-value correction factors based on cumulative distribution functions of observations and model outputs.
From these base data sets, new national-level climate change data and maps were generated covering various indicators that were identified by key stakeholders as important to their operations.
The objectives of the workshop were to:
Targeted Audience and Participation to the Event:
Over a hundred persons attended the virtual event, which gathered decision-makers from key national and local institutions from Morocco. Engineers and Researchers from those institutions as well as from the academic sectors also attended the event as it aimed to present key findings and the various data sets produced during this activity. As this work brings in new information on Morocco’s climate future, Morocco’s key regional partners were also invited to the event.
Session 1 - Introduction
Session 2 - Integration of climate analysis in planning and needs
Session 3 - Climate change assessment methods, generation, and introduction to the new climate datasets