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The third report in the Turn Down the Heat series finds that warming of about 1.5°C above pre-industrial times is already locked into the Earth’s atmospheric system by past and predicted greenhouse gas emissions, meaning more severe droughts, sea level rise, and increasing risk to food and water security, coastal communities, and livelihoods. Without concerted action, the planet will continue to warm and extreme weather events that today occur once in hundreds of years could become the new climate normal, causing increased risks and instability.
The report, commissioned by the World Bank Group from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics, analyses likely impacts of 2°C and 4°C warming in three regions — Latin-America and the Caribbean, the Middle East and North Africa, and parts of Europe and Central Asia — and finds feedback loops from melting permafrost and forest dieback and increasingly severe consequences for humans as extreme heat becomes more frequent, water resources become less reliable, diseases move into new ranges, and sea levels rise.