Highlights

The third report in the Turn Down the Heat series finds that warming of about 1.5°C above pre-industrial times is already locked into the Earth’s atmospheric system by past and predicted greenhouse gas emissions, meaning more severe droughts, sea level rise, and increasing risk to food and water security, coastal communities, and livelihoods. Without concerted action, the planet will continue to warm and extreme weather events that today occur once in hundreds of years could become the new climate normal, causing increased risks and instability.

The report, commissioned by the World Bank Group from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics, analyses likely impacts of 2°C and 4°C warming in three regions — Latin-America and the Caribbean, the Middle East and North Africa, and parts of Europe and Central Asia — and finds feedback loops from melting permafrost and forest dieback and increasingly severe consequences for humans as extreme heat becomes more frequent, water resources become less reliable, diseases move into new ranges, and sea levels rise.

Report

Turn Down the Heat: Confronting the New Climate Normal
Executive Summary in English, Arabic, French
Regional Summary in English, Arabic, French,

Press releases

Climate Change to Bring More Heat, Water Shortages to Middle East & North Africa

تغيُّر المناخ يفاقم موجات الحر ونقص المياه في الشرق الأوسط وشمال أفريقيا

Changement climatique : vagues de chaleur et pénuries d’eau plus fréquentes attendues dans la région MENA
 

Blog

Two Scenarios for a Hotter and Drier Arab World—And What We Can Do About It

Moyen-Orient et Afrique du Nord : quelles sont les conséquences d’un climat plus chaud et aride sur l’environnement et les actions possibles pour y remédier?

سيناريوهان لعالم عربي أكثر حرارة وجفافاً ــ ماذا عسانا أن نفعل إزاء ذلك؟